LONDON OPEN - Roundup

Yesterday was a quiet and somewhat choppy day, with no good trading opportunities, although EURUSD did fall in line with last week's trend.

Overnight JPY has strengthened a little. However the action on the JPY pairs looks choppy and focus has shifted to the USD.

It seems likely that the best trade to watch for will be EURUSD short.

LONDON OPEN - Roundup

A fairly quiet Tokyo session with a slightly strengthening JPY and weakening USD, counter to this week's expected trend.

Yesterday there were two opportunities, an EURJPY short which did not set up quite right for an entry in the MTFM strategy, but also a EURUSD long Ponshada Pins entry which did:

The EURUSD long has already given a maximum reward of 50 pips for a risk of about 45 pips and is still open. As it is strongly counter-trend I entered late and took conservative profits.

WEEKLY OPEN - Roundup

The most interesting thing that happened last week is that the USD printed weekly engulfing reversal bars against EUR, GBP, AUD and JPY. This is a signal showing that further strengthening of the USD is likely now.
The risk currencies also strengthened against the JPY.

Right at the moment it looks like a typical quiet Monday, counter trend movements at the moment. No obvious opportunities for trades.

LONDON OPEN - Roundup

The JPY has weakened, as has the USD generally to a lesser extent, with the risk currencies strengthening, especially the AUD.

There is little news due today so it may be a quiet day.

All the JPY pairs produced long engulfings on the 4 hour charts overnight, they are currently trading a little slow and over-extended, but there may be opportunities t long these pairs later after pullbacks or breakouts.

The potential AUDUSD short that I mentioned yesterday has not triggered yet, about an hour ago the price got to 2 pips of the zone and fell back. If it gets up there later (0.9260 to 0.9312) this will be a good place to look for shorts.

LONDON CLOSE - Roundup

Unfortunately from about an hour or so after London open, the forex markets were actually fairly quiet. The dominance of the JPY in the market over recent months has put those of us who trade the London session at a bit of a disadvantage, as it is often around half way through the Tokyo session that the best JPY pair set-ups occur. By the time London opens at 8am London time it can be a bit late to get the best of any move. My EURJPY long this morning was an illustration of that as there was a better trade a little while before London opened.

Today for most of the London session there was a counter-trend drift, but there were no additional moves of any great significance.

I will wait for midnight GMT before making a final call, but we are currently positioned for a Demand Return trade tomorrow, short on AUDUSD between 0.9312 and 0.9260. Trades can be taken from midnight GMT tonight until close tomorrow. Of course, trading very close to Friday's close can be risky as brokers usually do not guarantee stops that are hit over the weekend.

LONDON OPEN - Roundup

Good morning. The story today is simple and good. The news last night has markedly strengthened the USD and weakened the JPY against more or less everything. The biggest mover is USDJPY which is driving the market.

The strongest risk currency against JPY is EUR. I took a quick long a short while ago, there have already been 2 long 4 hour bar engufing set ups this morning. I missed the earlier engulfing bar (first blue shade) but caught the inside bar for some pips up to R2:

If you are not already in, hopefully there will be a pullback with more chances for entry later.

LONDON OPEN - Roundup

Good morning. There has been very little movement overnight and so far this morning. Today the market is probably not going to give much in the way of opportunities. Things should become clearer with the FOMC meeting tonight, after which we are probably set for some movement.

I still have my eye on AUD longs especially AUDUSD which if it breaks 0.9525 should be a good bet to move long nicely.

LONDON CLOSE - Roundup

The London session today did not give much clarity. Everything is still mixed up and there were few opportunities today for swing trading.

EURJPY engulfed up on the 4 hour chart and it was possible to make a few pips long as it traveled up to 128.06.

AUDJPY also engulfed up but so far has not really been able to break through the resistance around the GMT daily pivot.

AUDUSD has just engulfed up so it seems that taken together with AUDJPY that AUD is trying to turn long. As we are at significant lows and AUD has lately moved strongly, a long AUD trade could be on the cards.

LONDON OPEN - Roundup

The market is mixed and confused and waiting for news.
The clearest trend has been the continued decline of AUDUSD which printed another engulfing short 4 hour bar very early this morning.
If you were in yesterday's AUDUSD MTFM short trade you could be up about 150 pips by now.

A 4 hour bullish engulfing bar just printed on EURUSD, there was an inside bar on the 15 minute chart with a long break but it failed. There is also a long 4 hour set-up on EURJPY but that would have to break a very strong resistance level of 127.50.

LONDON CLOSE - Roundup

There were MTFM set-ups on EURUSD and GBPUSD but neither of those would have been great to take, especially EURUSD.

As I highlighted in my last post, the better bet was short AUDUSD, which did indeed break down and reach the daily low, in fact surpassing it so far by another 38 pips:

Zooming in on the 15 minute chart there was a nice entry as an engulfing pin cutting through both the 50 period moving averages broke the 4 hour low on the next bar. So far that would be a risk of 15 pips and a maximum reward of about 85.

It has been a fairly quiet London session and a typical Monday. I took no trades as it I judged it a poor market for trading. Tomorrow could be much more dynamic with some key economic events scheduled.

MTFM Set Up AUDUSD

The last 4 hours have closed as a bearish engulfing.

I am not very enthusiastic about this set-up either; however, it looks better than EURUSD and GBPUSD as with AUDUSD we are at least having a series of lower highs and lower lows:

If AUDUSD breaks down sharply and suddenly, we might at least get a trip back down to today's low.

MTFM Set Ups

There are 4 hour bullish engulfing bars on EURUSD and GBPUSD.
I am not optimistic about these set ups and if there are any trades on the 15 minute chart I would take them with the smallest position size possible.
Let's see if they break their highs soon.

WEEKLY OPEN

Good morning. So far since Tokyo opened the JPY has been weakening, especially against AUD but also against the USD and the risk currencies. The risk currencies in general are also up somewhat against the USD.

As this is Monday it is appropriate to be cautious as Mondays often show fake moves and chop. The swings in most currency pairs have been slowly leading towards consolidation which makes me cautious.

However if the risk currencies pull back from some of their gains there might be a good trade if they either make new highs or alternatively go on to drop strongly.

Daily Update

It has been a quiet day with not much trading opportunity. Both the USD and JPY have been strengthening with the JPY most strong.

The trades I mentioned yesterday went well. The MTFM AUDJPY trade retraced to within a pip of its stop less then turned around again and took off. It is still live now. The trade made yesterday a maximum of 250 pips for a risk of about 28 pips, almost 10 to 1 reward to risk:

The GBPUSD Demand Return trade was successful and did reach the high and beyond, although it was also very close to reaching the stop:

I mentioned the possibility yesterday of a EURUSD Demand Return trade. This did set up twice, once for a loss, once for a win. I did not take this as the price had already travelled about 70 pips since the morning and the set up was just before USD crucial news.

MTFM AUDJPY Long trade

I did not take this as I already has a long AUDUSD position that was doing well.
There was a 4 hour engulfing bar at the last hourly close.
There was also a 15 minute engufing bar at the same time, you could have taken the long break of this bar at the high just a few pips above.
It is currently +30 pips for a risk of 24. and was higher a short while ago:

Demand Return GBPUSD Long trade - Part 2

The first trade was stopped out, but there was another opportunity about an hour ago with the break off an inside bar at a lower price than the first trade. It also had just touched the 200 EMA (white line) which probably helped. For a risk of about 9 pips it made +28. It may well not hit the high of today, I exited when it entered the congestion zone at 1.5880:

Demand Return GBPUSD Long trade

A 15 minute inside bar formed at the top of the demand level. Entered long on the long break of the bar:

MTFM Set-Up Short EURUSD

The 4 hour bar has engulfed off the daily high, we can now wait for a 15 minute entry.

LONDON OPEN - Roundup

Apologies for my silence over the past couple of days, I will try to write a recap of the trades of interest that happened during this period later.

The JPY has continued to strengthen and has reached a level against the USD not seen since early April. Meanwhile the USD has continued to weaken against EUR and GBP, but the main story remains USDJPY.

This morning since Frankfurt open USD has been strengthening somewhat, particularly against the risk currencies.

There has been a MTFM trade set up short on GBPUSD a few minutes ago, however I am ignoring this as we are very close to the zone for considering a long Demand Return trade, which tend to have a better win rate than the MTFM trade.

It may be a slow day as there is little news expected, and we saw large moves yesterday.

PONSHADA PINS - EURUSD Short Trade

We just had a pin bar on the 1 hour chart on EURUSD that is larger than any of the 5 previous bars and that cuts through a pivot point (R1 at 1.3288 on the GMT chart). It also cuts through Friday's daily high and is very close to a round number. The open and close are both in the bottom third of the bar. We have a Ponshada Pins trade:

However the trend still has some strength so this does not seem to be like a top-grade set-up. I started the trade small and might add to it later.

LONDON OPEN - Roundup

The Tokyo session has seen a strengthening of the safe haven currencies JPY and USD with JPY stronger.
However weakness is AUD has been the leading factor in the forex market overnight, driven by poor Australian economic data in conjunction with its long-term weakening trend.
These tendencies have continued since London opened almost an hour ago and so might continue all day. However there is a Bank of Japan press conference going on right now that could easily move the market around.

WEEKLY OPEN - Roundup

As I mentioned at the close last Friday, the big question is whether the JPY will begin weakening again after having formed pin bars on the daily charts against a number of currencies especially the USD and EUR.

So far today, Friday's reversal has continued, there was a quick MTFM trade on EURJPY long at 9am London time this morning when H4, H1 and M15 engulfing bars all printed at the same time for +50 pips of profit until it hit last week's opening level.

Since NY opened about 45 minutes ago, the JPY has begun strengthening again, but it is too soon for any trade set-ups from this.

LONDON CLOSE - Roundup

An interesting day that gave some opportunities.
Overnight and before the NFP, JPY and to a much lesser extent USD continued to strengthen.

There were short MTFM trades on both GBPJPY and EURJPY, the GBPJPY being better. However these only gave about 1:1 reward to risk before anticipation of the NFP caused volatile fluctuation and hitting of stops.

After the NFP there was a long MTFM trade on EURJPY that is up about 1.2:1 reward to risk and still open right now.

In the bigger picture on the daily charts, all the JPY pairs seem poised to give pin bars against JPY, signalling that perhaps the sharp strengthening of the JPY over recent weeks is over, at least for a significant retracement, and possibly for a change in trend. Monday could give further clues.

Recent moves in JPY have been wild and massive, though technically orderly, and show every sign of continuing to give good trading opportunities.

The AUDUSD short Demand Return trade I highlighted yesterday did work out, however the first signal was very weak, engulfing less than a pip, and given very late right at NY close so I passed on that and slept during Tokyo session. However it gave excellent reward to risk of about 18 to 1!

A good weekend away from the screens to you all.

LONDON CLOSE - Roundup

A fairly quiet day until the news in the afternoon which gave further strength to the EUR.
The near London close, a huge explosion driven by a massive strengthening of JPY against USD, which led to huge bullish rises in EURUSD and GBPUSD. The day's ranges in both of these pairs were the largest since early January in EURUSD and for even longer than that in GBPUSD.

If you had been holding longs from previous trades I highlighted over the past couple of weeks in EURUSD and GBPUSD you will very well positioned in profit now.

In AUDUSD the price has just returned to the Demand Zone (between yesterday's high and Wednesday's low) for a Demand Return trade (between 0.9660 and 0.9610), however there has not yet been a good entry point. Hopefully price will move back closer to the zone this evening and give the chance of a low-risk entry.

The demand zone is between the 2 upper blue horizontal lines:

LONDON OPEN - Roundup

Good morning. AUD continued its move down during the Tokyo session but has been retracing the last couple of hours. Movements right now are a bit mixed and mainly counter trend. EUR and GBP remain bullish but show signs of running out of momentum.

Yesterday's Ponshada Pins trade was stopped out for a loss. The GBPUSD Trend Engulfs trade which I was stopped out of at break even however is up over a hundred pips for anyone still in that.

LONDON CLOSE - Roundup

Today saw a general strengthening of the JPY but the prime mover was weakness in AUD.
The big down move in AUDJPY began during the Tokyo session with a 4H engulfing bar:

There were several opportunities to enter a MTFM trade from the 15 minute chart during both the London and Tokyo session. 4 winners and 3 losers giving a total maximum net gain to date of +520 pips!

There were also entries on other pairs EURUSD which was choppy (3 losers), GBPUSD (2 losers, 1 winner), and AUDUSD (1 winner).

There was a good-looking Trend Engulfs entry on GBPUSD long, which is currently in profit. I took this but exited at break even after the pin bar:

Finally there was a Ponshada Pin entry short on EURUSD which I did take. These have a high win rate although this was not one of the best set-ups due to the price action below the entry bar. It is still open and working at a loss right now, though hopefully it is beginning to turn around:

All in all a busy day.

LONDON OPEN - Roundup

Good morning. Yesterday was a very quiet day with little action or movement.
Overnight the JPY has strengthened most notably against AUD. USD has also strengthened against most other currencies but the big story as so often these days is USDJPY.

Yesterday was an inside day on many pairs so trading could be quite unpredictable and choppy today. It may well be that JPY has already made its move so be careful.

LONDON OPEN - Roundup

Overnight the AUD and JPY have weakened. EUR and GBP are relatively strong. Time to watch and wait and see how things develop over the session.

LONDON CLOSE - Roundup

A mixed session which began with USD bottoming out against JPY and the risk currencies before tracing out a textbook reversal which gained momentum with the NY open. However the economic news from the USA about 1.5 hours ago turned everything around sharply and strongly and as I write USD is significantly down especially against JPY. The big move of the day is in USDJPY.

There were two MTFM trades today, I took both of them. Firstly long GBPJPY which was a fast loser. The second which looked much more promising was EURUSD short at about 1.2990 after a reversal from the day's high. It got to about 1.2955 before reversing sharply with the news.

The good news is that if you are still in last week's long trades in EURUSD and GBPUSD (believe it or not, the only valid trades from my systems last week which I chose not to take), as I write you are up some significant pips that far outweigh the other losses:

GBPUSD MTFM +220 pips
GBPUSD Demand Return +180 pips
EURUSD MTFM + 190 pips
EURUSD Demand Return +120 pips

LONDON OPEN - Roundup

The USD has weakened overnight and in early morning trading, especially against the EUR and GBP.
If you took the late trades in either EURUSD or GBPUSD long that I highlighted on Friday (but advised to exit before the weekend close), that would be great, with GBPUSD you already hit the first profit target (Thursday's high).

The MTFM trades from earlier in the week can also still be open and in some nice profit, if you took them.

I don't see any other opportunities so far today.

LONDON CLOSE - Roundup

Today's story was USD and JPY both strengthening almost equally against AUD and EUR, and to a lesser extent, GBP.

This was a little surprising as price action until London open this morning suggested that USD would continue to weaken.

As for trades taken with my strategies this week that would still be open:

1. MTFM trades long EURUSD and GBPUSD (approx 80 pips) are still in profit if open. The weekly charts are suggesting next week will have some long bias but might well be choppy. If your risk/reward profile calls for it, you might want to consider taking more profit now.

2. Today's Demand Return trades from just before the London close are still open and slightly in profit. In my opinion it would be risky to leave them open over the weekend this close to their stops. The GBP looks better than the EUR.

The weekly bars are almost all closing in their middles, suggesting a ranging and possible choppy week ahead with best trades probably being fades of the weekly highs and lows.
The exception is AUDUSD which is currently showing more downside.
This could change before NY close tonight of course but the market looks quiet now.

DEMAND RETURN Trades: EURUSD & GBPUSD Long

The earlier EURUSD long trade was stopped out.

However the zone has not been breached. GBPUSD also just entered its zone.

The last 15 minute bars were engulfing longs on both EURUSD and GBPUSD.

GBPUSD:

EURUSD:

I did not take these trades myself as I do not like to trade this close to the London close on a Friday.

DEMAND RETURN SET-UP: EURUSD Long Part 2

I entered on the long break of the inside bar off the demand zone.
The pin bar on the 200 EMA (white line) against the trade made me nervous.
Finally the large bearish engulfing bar off 1.30 and the 20 EMA (blue line) in the direction of the daily trend convinced me to exit for a small loss.

The original stop still has not been hit so if you are in this trade you could still hold on. In fact as I speak it is bouncing back strongly.

Demand Return Set-Up: EURUSD Long

Price retraced back to 1.2977, its possible now to look for longs on the 15 minute chart.
The down move was fairly sharp so you could wait for an entry at a higher price after a bounce.

LONDON OPEN - Roundup

Not much happened overnight.

There are long Demand Return set-ups on EURUSD and GBPUSD with EURUSD looking the more bullish.
Price needs to retrace to Wednesday's highs: 1.2977 for EURUSD and 1.5145 for GBPUSD.

Watch and wait for other developments.

LONDON CLOSE - Roundup

A little early for a roundup, but the picture is clear by now.

As I forecast this morning, it was indeed a good day to go long against the USD, especially with EURUSD and GBPUSD.

JPY is slightly stronger but EUR is strongest of all.

This will be great news if you are still long EURUSD and/or GBPUSD from yesterday's MTFM trade with an entry at about 1.2893 on EURUSD and 1.5097 on GBPUSD. At the time of writing you would be up about 150 pips on EURUSD and 110 on GBPUSD.

The strong bullish moves in EURUSD and GBUSD will probably also give good opportunities for Demand Return trades tomorrow.

MTFM EURUSD & GBPUSD Short 4 Hour Set-Ups

These have appeared, just at NY open.
Wait for a 15 minute candle for entry, below the low of the last 4 hours.
There is important economic news due from the USA in half an hour, so anything could happen to a trade open from then.

GBPUSD price action is better, but EURUSD bounced off last week's high, so take your pick (depending upon if a set-up comes or not).

LONDON OPEN - Roundup

Overnight the JPY has strengthened and the USD has weakened.
AUD, EUR and GBP all printed bullish engulfing bars yesterday against USD, which is a good sign for longs against USD.

If you took yesterday's first MTFM long entries on EURUSD and GBPUSD, they are still open and in profit. On EURUSD, beware of last week's high at 1.2997. This could be a good place to take partial profit or move stop to break even if your trading strategy calls for these measures.

LONDON CLOSE - Roundup

Apologies for the lack of a post this morning.
As it turned out, today was an interesting day with a couple of good MTFM trades available to anyone watching out for them.

The story today was of the JPY strengthening and the USD weakening.
As I mentioned before, the USD has run into resistance against EUR, GBP and AUD, although the weekly highs against the last 2 were broken, EUR held.
Today EUR and GBP were fairly well placed to benefit from the USD weakening.

This morning there were MTFM set-ups on the 4 hour chart for EURUSD and GBPUSD long. By the way, when you get the same set-ups at about the same time on both of these pairs in the same direction either for or against the USD, it is a good sign.

After the set-up there were some long entries on the 15 minute chart for EURUSD:

The first entry is still open and already gave a maximum of 82 pips for a risk of about 11 pips, almost 8 to 1 reward to risk. The later entries were not so good although one of them produced a good reward ratio, but all would be stopped out now.

As a general rule, it is good to enter before the price reaches the wick of yesterday's candle if yesterday's direction is contrary to the direction you are trading in today.

Looking at GBPUSD, it is the same story as EURUSD:

Hope some of you have some EURUSD long left that you are holding onto. This is so far a second inside week inside a support zone, it is quite possible it could run up for another 200 or 300 pips or even more. Remember you only need one big winner every now and again, even if you take bread and butter partial profits.

LONDON CLOSE - Roundup

It was a mixed session where after all the risk currencies rose against JPY and to a lesser extent USD, there was a sharp turnaround towards the end of the session.

However in the last hour it appears there has been some return to the USD strengthening against the JPY and all the risk currencies strengthening against both.

Concerning the AUDUSD long set-up, there were 4 entries earlier, 3 of which made at least 1:1.
The price subsequently dropped below all of them, but then made another possible entry with the long break of the inside bar about 1 hour ago (the final blue highlight):

LONDON OPEN - Roundup

The JPY weakened overnight sharply.

Last week's AUDUSD MTFM Long set-up still has not been invalidated as the low has not been broken yet. In fact this morning there was another Long-set up with the 4 hour bar closing at 5am London time.

There have been some good long entries overnight on the 15 minute chart:

There is not much momentum there over the past few days, but we are close to a multi-year low, which was tested again this morning. There may be a double bottom formation.

WEEKLY ROUNDUP - Part 2

Last week the JPY strengthened. The USD did also but not by as much.
The JPY has been weakening for a long time and the strengthening has been sudden and sharp.
On the weekly charts, JPY closed up against everything, making new highs. Against the USD, its largest trading partner, it made a rejection engulfing candle.

All other things being equal, it seems that there is room for further JPY strengthening.

The USD also strengthened but is running into resistance. It actually fell against the EUR this week, forming an inside bar just off the significant low of 1.2750 - 1.28.

USD is also running into a multi-year high against AUD, and into a resistance against GBP in a similar way to EUR.

Therefore it could be that USD will find it hard to strengthen this coming week. A strengthening JPY technically seems more likely.

WEEKLY ROUNDUP - Part 1

Tomorrow (Monday) is a public holiday in both the USA and the UK, I never trade on days that are public holidays in the UK as much of the world's forex volume is moved through London.

Tomorrow evening I will write more about last week.

MTFM AUDUSD Long Trade 3

The 4 hour set-up is still valid.
There were 2 engulfing bars this morning giving opportunities for long entries.
I did not take the first one at it was too large.
I did not take the second one as I was waiting for a drop down to 0.9650 or below. The overall price action also looks consolidated.

Still, you never know. If you are in either trade, good luck. Remember it is a public holiday Monday in both UK and USA.

Possible Trend Engulfs Long EURUSD

There is a Trend Engulfs set-up long EURUSD now.
I won't take this trade as the signal candle is too large (about 60 pips).
If it was smaller I would have.

LONDON OPEN ROUNDUP

Overnight things have corrected themselves.
EUR has been most strong with EURUSD holding up back above 1.29 so far.
JPY has also strengthened again.
AUD has been weak.

Yesterday's AUDUSD long trade steadily came off its high reached around London close yesterday and the stop was hit overnight. Since then it has rallied somewhat. If the price falls back down below to where it was yesterday morning without breaking yesterday's low, I would consider taking another MTFM long if price action warrants it.

No obvious opportunities at the moment.

LONDON CLOSE ROUNDUP

The story today was counter trend after all.
There was a rebound against the USD and a lesser one against the JPY.

EUR, AUD and GBP have all been especially bullish against the USD.

The AUD long opportunity I highlighted this morning did play out well.
AUDUSD long is behaving nicely so far and could be one to sit tight on if you are in it.

MTFM Long AUDUSD Trade 2

I took another long entry as we got the break of the double inside bars after an engulfing pin bars (second blue highlight):

MTFM Long AUDUSD Trade

We finally had an engulfing candle that just broke so there is a long entry.

I got in a little earlier at the first touch of the 20 EMA and already took off risk.

MTFM Set-Up Long AUDUSD

The close of the recent 4 hour bar shows something exciting happening now on AUDUSD.
This bar not only engulfed the previous bar but also made a 1 year low which itself was barely above a 2 year low.
The reaction off this level this morning has been strong and impulsive.

Looking at the daily chart of AUDUSD over the past 3 years below, we can see how the price has entered a  3 year old demand zone from which it has risen several times.

If the high of this morning is broken to the upside, we can drop to the 15 minute chart and look for long entries off inside and engulfing bar breaks in a MTFM Strategy trade.

Bear in mind that most of these trades are losers, however we have a higher than usual probability here of a move of several hundred pips if we do get a runner i.e. a huge reward to risk ratio.

DEMAND RETURN Setup GBPUSD Short

GBPUSD is in a multi-day downtrend.

In the unlikely event it returns to 1.5111 during today's London session, this would be an opportunity to look for a short on the 15 minute chart as a Demand Return trade.

LONDON OPEN ROUNDUP

The last 15 or so hours have seen dramatic moves in the FX markets.
The JPY has strengthened very strongly, the USD also has, and the AUD is very weak.
I have not had time to read the news so I won't delve into rationalisations.
After moves as strong as these you do not usually want to trade counter trend straight away.
There may be further opportunities in the direction of the big moves.

One counter trend opportunity that may arise soon comes from AUDUSD approaching a 2 year low of 95.76 - if it settles down or starts to bounce long around this level, could be a great long.

Reconsidered EURUSD Short Trade

After some reflection, I challenged myself as to whether I was in this short for a good reward to risk, or just because I couldn't stand to miss out on a likely move down.

With a risk of 123 pips and a multi-month low only about 120 pips from entry, I couldn't really justify this trade to myself as a good trade, so I just took the opportunity to exit on my private account for a small profit of about 12 pips.

Checking my Collective2 account I saw that the trade had been entered as a buy and not a sell and was stopped for the spread. Currently unsure whether it was my error or their error.

I do believe EURUSD will sink to at least 1.28 before it hits 1.30. But then, a trader's job is not really to be right, its to be right enough early enough to make it pay. This trade was on the late side probably.

I was also influenced by the fact this was on its was looking like a Ponshada Pins set-up, in fact had surpassed it.

LONDON CLOSE ROUNDUP

Bernanke's comments have sent the USD skyrocketing. He made it clear the US will do what it has to do to keep the stock market booming as long as they feel the need to (to paraphrase).

I just went short EURUSD at the turn of the hour with a stop at 1.3005.
I do not like to trade off such a large candle but it marks such a strong sentiment that it is highly likely EURUSD is going to fall considerably further.

The trade of the day was the EURJPY long Trend Engulfs trade that I mentioned earlier. This made a maximum reward to risk already of just under 6 to 1.

The moves on other pairs have also been dramatic and it will be interesting to see what tomorrow brings.

EURUSD Long Trade Demand Return/MTFM

The 15 minute chart gave another entry (3rd blue highlight below).
I took this trade on my collective2 account but exited at 1.2875 for about a 1:1 risk/reward, unfortunately there was slippage. If it had shot right up to 1.30 I would have held on.

Fortunately in my private account I still had some of my long from the London open at 1.2918 this morning, I made it a free trade at around 1.2935 with a stop under the daily low which I did not move.

I took some more profit at R2 (1.2989), moved the stop to break even and left the rest in case this is foundation for a more prolonged move up with EURUSD.

If at 4pm London time the price is back down below 1.2953 I will exit the remainder and take a short.

MTFM Trade - EURUSD Long

The first entry has set up now on the 15 minute chart with a double engulfing bar.
I don't think a break long of this would be an A++ entry due to the pin bar at 1.2950 which is also's today R1 and yesterday's R2.
The hourly chart also looks bad.
Nevertheless it is a valid entry (second highlighted bar):

DEMAND RETURN Update 2

I recommend moving stop to break even if you entered at around 1.2918.
The action now is bearish and if it falls this low quickly, will indicate short action.
It is always possible to look for more longs if it gets back to break even then bounces.

MTFM EURUSD Trade - Long

The 4 hour bar that closed at 11am London time engulfed the previous bar (in open and close terms).
The high of that 4 hour bar has already been broken.

MTFM now drops down to the 15 minute time frame and looks for long entries off engulfing or inside bars, until the low of the day is broken.

Although the day's range is very small so far (less than 50 pips), there may not be much action until the US data and Bernanke begin at 3pm London time.

DEMAND RETURN Trade Update - Long EURUSD

I entered long on the break of the 15 minute candle highlighted below, it engulfed several previous candles. Stop Loss is the low of the price action (which is also the low of the day).

There were also engulfing candles on the 1 hour chart, and there was a Trend Engulf entry on EURJPY long which I did not take due to the bearish inside bar above where the entry was. I wish I had now but there's no use crying over spilt milk:

LONDON OPEN ROUNDUP

The market is indeed a bit clearer this morning, at least insofar as the Bank of Japan has not caused any material changes overnight.

At the moment the market is not being driven by USDJPY, but more by the risk currencies.

Looking at the daily charts, EUR is strong, GBP is weak, and AUD is choppy but on the weak side.

The pair catching my eye right now is EURUSD for several reasons.

Looking at the daily chart, the downtrend bottomed out in a strong demand zone and has produced two consecutive bullish days. We have a Demand Return set-up long (this zone is marked by the red lines) and the price has returned to 1.2903. We can search for longs on the 15 minute chart. It is also a good sign that the price so far is being held by the round number 1.29.

LONDON CLOSE ROUNDUP

A ranging and confusing day.

I took a long AUDJPY trade following this morning's rejection engulfing bar, then an engulfing bar on the 15 minute chart, using the low of the price action as a stop loss. The trade moved in my favour about the same as my risk, then came down sharply. I exited at break even as by this point today's story had changed to one of renewed USD strength, as detailed in my previous post.

When the USD strength returned, there were short MTFM trades on AUDUSD and GBPUSD, shown below. 

I took the AUDUSD short but exited for break even. With the sudden USD weakness that began about an hour ago, these trades were not very productive, giving rewards little more than risk, although the GBPUSD would still be open. I missed GBPUSD as I was dealing with AUDJPY.

MTFM is best traded with large take profit targets.

The market today was driven truly by USDJPY and also by GBP weakness.

The overall picture has now become less clear, with EUR and AUD making new highs against both the USD and JPY, but with action being unstable.

There will be important announcements and data coming from Japan tonight, so the market might become clearer and more tradeable tomorrow morning.

For now it is best to wait. 

TRADE SET-UP UPDATE

GBPJPY MTFM strategy set up has been invalidated. On AUDJPY it is still in play, right now price is sitting on the 200 EMA in the 15 minute chart.

USD has strengthened since the London open, giving us MTFM set-ups short on EUR, GBP, and AUD against USD. Wait for the lows of the last 4 hours to break then look for entries on the 15 minute charts. Note that 4H candles closing at 9am London time produce positive trades but are not usually the most optimal. Currently GBPUSD looks the best bet, but it is right next to last week's low which is a demand zone. AUDUSD could be smoother.

LONDON OPEN ROUNDUP

Good morning. The story overnight is one of the USD continuing to weaken against risk currencies (e.g. EUR, GBP), and everything is strengthening against JPY.

It remains to be seen whether the strong USD trend is over or merely pausing.

AUDUSD has been on a strong run up overnight.

It could be that our trading focus will begin to shift away from USD pairs towards JPY pairs.

There were 4 hour Multiple Time Frames Momentum set ups on 4 hour bars closing halfway through the Tokyo session on AUDJPY and GBPJPY. AUDJPY looks the better bet, remember you need at least 200 pips of profit to make this strategy pay if you see a set up on the 15 minute chart for either of those this morning.

Late last night after London close I took a Demand Return trade on AUDUSD short, risking a few pips on a 15 minute engulfing bar. It did not work. Notice that although the demand zone was broken very slightly later, AUDUSD subsequently fell strongly overnight, but did not reach Friday's low which would have been the usual first profit target:

LONDON CLOSE ROUNDUP

Action today was fairly quiet and somewhat choppy. The USD has continued to weaken slightly.
AUDUSD was ten minutes ago just a few ticks short of returning to its Demand Zone (Thursday's low). If it reaches the zone very soon I will look out for a price action entry on the 15 minute chart, otherwise I will leave it.

The GBPUSD outside bar short off the 200 EMA Bounce earlier today did not work out well, but did produce about 15 pips before a reversal on two double pin bars:

That's all for today.

200 EMA BOUNCE - GBPUSD short

Earlier GBPUSD made a daily high with a large outside/engulfing bar off the 200 EMA on the 15 minute chart, as highlighted in the image below.

It would have been possible to take the short break of this bar with the 200 EMA Bounce strategy.
It remains to be seen how this trade would work out. It has yet to reach break even.

LONDON OPEN ROUNDUP

Good morning. A little late this morning but nothing very material has happened yet.
Action since Tokyo open has seen the USD weaken somewhat across the board, albeit with none of Friday's highs or lows being tested yet.
Monday is often a tricky day, with the market direction typically not becoming clearer until NY open, if at all.
Last night's AUDUSD Demand Return trade was not triggered yet. I am now waiting see if it gets up to 0.98 during today's London session and if so, possibly go short if the price action there is right.
The jury is still out on my decision to exit Friday's EURUSD Trend Engulf short trade for a small loss, but currently it is only 10 pips off the high of the signal bar.

DEMAND RETURN TRADE - AUDUSD short

We start the week with a demand return trade straight away.

AUDUSD fell strongly Thursday and Friday.

Limit short order at about 0.98 (Thursday's low) with a stop around 0.9830 (Friday's high).

I would prefer to wait for the price action at any return to the zone (between the two red lines in the picture below), but I can't keep Australian hours. Even traders have to sleep sometimes.

LONDON CLOSE ROUNDUP

We end the week today with a story of renewed USD strength in line with the trend of the last couple of weeks.
USD made new highs against JPY, EUR, AUD and GBP after some early weakness after London opened. However the counter trend could never really get going and ranges were small before NY open.
JPY action was choppy, albeit a little more clearly defined against AUD.

It is always dangerous to guess tops and bottoms but it must be noted that EUR and AUD have significant support against USD at 1.2750 and 0.96 respectively. There have been some nice AUDUSD and EURUSD shorts lately but the trend will not go on forever without a pullback.

The best trades over the last couple of days from the strategies I discuss on my website, were, firstly the Demand Return EURUSD short that I highlighted yesterday. I did not take this trade as the signal candle on the 15 minute chart was very large (37 pips). However if you had entered immediately at 1.2911 with 1.2942 as the stop you would be up by a factor of about 3 to 1 now. I prefer to enter only after price action.

Another good EURUSD short trade which I missed highlighting today was a 200 EMA Bounce trade on the 15 minute chart. At 10:15 EURUSD returned to its 200 EMA on the 15 minute chart and quickly formed a small inside doji bar. Taking the break of this short would have netted you a maximum 87 pips of profit for only 7 pips of risk (a maximum factor of 12 to 1), and the trade would still be open.

I hope some of you were long USD this week. A relaxing weekend to all and some green pips next week hopefully.

TREND ENGULF - EURUSD short trade EXITED

I exited the trade for a small loss of about 10 pips, a little less than one-sixth of what I had risked on this trade.
I made the early exit before the stop was hit for a number of reasons:

1. I did not like the pin bar and spinning bottom 1 hour bars that immediately followed the trade.
2. The trade went in my favour just a little below 1.28 then bounced back off that number extremely quickly. The area below 1.28 is a strong demand zone for EUR and I was concerned about how the price would react down there.
3. Bernanke is beginning to speak.
4. Friday London close is coming up and the market can often do weird and wild things around this time as the big banks and hedge funds shuffle their books at the end of the week, while liquidity drops.
5. A human factor - the worry of holding a trade over the weekend and being trapped for 48 hours.
6. The trade was not an A+ trade due to the fact the bar was very long, about 65 pips. If the bar had been 30 or so pips I would have been happier to hold the trade despite all of the above.

I do think the price is quite likely to hit 1.28 again today, but once you decide a trade is really unappealing it is best to exit straight away.

There is a good argument to be made for not exiting a trade with a loss until the stop is hit. I think a trader has to be sure he is exiting for a good reason, not just because he or she does not like the tension.

TREND ENGULF - EURUSD short set-up

EURUSD broke down and has formed a classic 1-2-3 bar pattern off the moving averages.
The strategy looks for a short on the break down of the previous 1 hour bar, which has just occurred.

MULTIPLE TIME FRAMES MOMENTUM - EURUSD long

A 4 hour bar has just closed, engulfing the previous bar and rejecting 1.2850.
Time to drop down to the 15 minute charts and look for long entries.
Price is hovering just on the wrong side of the 200 EMA, so its advisable wait for a breakout and pullback.
The same set-up looks likely to form on GBPUSD at the close of the next hour.

LONDON OPEN ROUNDUP

USD has bounced back from yesterday's bad news, JPY weakness continues.
USD has made a new high already against the AUD with 0.98 now broken by AUDUSD. AUDUSD is showing every sign that it will make its way down to 0.9575 where it bottomed out last summer.
EURUSD is again testing 1.2850 and should face significant support at 1.2750.
The dynamic is again towards USD longs.
Of the trades discussed yesterday, the EURUSD demand return trade from the area of 1.2911 would be open and in profit this morning.

LONDON CLOSE ROUNDUP

Today was a good day to be cautious of USD longs and to look for counter trend trades later in the day.
The first few hours after the London open saw the USD top out against resistance on JPY, EUR, GBP and AUD, most notably forming a double bottom and 1 hour pin bar at 1.2850 in EURUSD.
The USD began to drift down and the countertrend was given an impetus by poorer than expected economic news from the US. More poor news followed a little later, driving GBPUSD up to 1.5320.

USD was weakest against GBP and EUR, with both providing nice price action trade entries today with a 1 hour chart pin bar on EURUSD and an engulfing bar rejecting the daily low on the GBPUSD 4 hour chart.

The USD significantly has so far failed to make a new high against JPY today.

The USD momentum of the strength we have seen lately usually takes a while to turn around, so a continued strong move against USD tomorrow is probably unlikely. GBP and EUR may have already formed significant lows against USD that might not be tested again in the coming days.

JPY action was quite choppy across the board.

Update - MULTIPLE TIME FRAMES MOMENTUM - GBPUSD long

The US economic news at 13:30 London time was poor for the USD.
This drove GBPUSD up through the 200 EMA on the 15 minute chart.
Price then formed a bar that was both inside and double engulfing.

Buying the break of this bar would have produced a trade that is still open, the bar was about 12.5 pips risk and has made a maximum so far of about 52 pips, a reward to risk ratio of 4.16.

Unfortunately I missed this trade due to a (thankfully rare) internet outage.

TREND ENGULF TRADE - GBPJPY Long

MULTIPLE TIME FRAMES MOMENTUM - GBPUSD long

A trade set-up is beginning to form on GBPUSD.
A 4 hour bar has just closed engulfing the open and close of the previous 3 bars.
If GBPUSD continues to rise during the New York session and breaks the 15 minute chart's 200 EMA, it becomes possible to look for long trades.