Yesterday was a quiet and somewhat choppy day, with no good trading opportunities, although EURUSD did fall in line with last week's trend.
Overnight JPY has strengthened a little. However the action on the JPY pairs looks choppy and focus has shifted to the USD.
It seems likely that the best trade to watch for will be EURUSD short.
Wednesday, 26 June 2013
Tuesday, 25 June 2013
LONDON OPEN - Roundup
A fairly quiet Tokyo session with a slightly strengthening JPY and weakening USD, counter to this week's expected trend.
Yesterday there were two opportunities, an EURJPY short which did not set up quite right for an entry in the MTFM strategy, but also a EURUSD long Ponshada Pins entry which did:
The EURUSD long has already given a maximum reward of 50 pips for a risk of about 45 pips and is still open. As it is strongly counter-trend I entered late and took conservative profits.
Yesterday there were two opportunities, an EURJPY short which did not set up quite right for an entry in the MTFM strategy, but also a EURUSD long Ponshada Pins entry which did:
The EURUSD long has already given a maximum reward of 50 pips for a risk of about 45 pips and is still open. As it is strongly counter-trend I entered late and took conservative profits.
Monday, 24 June 2013
WEEKLY OPEN - Roundup
The most interesting thing that happened last week is that the USD printed weekly engulfing reversal bars against EUR, GBP, AUD and JPY. This is a signal showing that further strengthening of the USD is likely now.
The risk currencies also strengthened against the JPY.
Right at the moment it looks like a typical quiet Monday, counter trend movements at the moment. No obvious opportunities for trades.
The risk currencies also strengthened against the JPY.
Right at the moment it looks like a typical quiet Monday, counter trend movements at the moment. No obvious opportunities for trades.
Friday, 21 June 2013
LONDON OPEN - Roundup
The JPY has weakened, as has the USD generally to a lesser extent, with the risk currencies strengthening, especially the AUD.
There is little news due today so it may be a quiet day.
All the JPY pairs produced long engulfings on the 4 hour charts overnight, they are currently trading a little slow and over-extended, but there may be opportunities t long these pairs later after pullbacks or breakouts.
The potential AUDUSD short that I mentioned yesterday has not triggered yet, about an hour ago the price got to 2 pips of the zone and fell back. If it gets up there later (0.9260 to 0.9312) this will be a good place to look for shorts.
There is little news due today so it may be a quiet day.
All the JPY pairs produced long engulfings on the 4 hour charts overnight, they are currently trading a little slow and over-extended, but there may be opportunities t long these pairs later after pullbacks or breakouts.
The potential AUDUSD short that I mentioned yesterday has not triggered yet, about an hour ago the price got to 2 pips of the zone and fell back. If it gets up there later (0.9260 to 0.9312) this will be a good place to look for shorts.
Thursday, 20 June 2013
LONDON CLOSE - Roundup
Unfortunately from about an hour or so after London open, the forex markets were actually fairly quiet. The dominance of the JPY in the market over recent months has put those of us who trade the London session at a bit of a disadvantage, as it is often around half way through the Tokyo session that the best JPY pair set-ups occur. By the time London opens at 8am London time it can be a bit late to get the best of any move. My EURJPY long this morning was an illustration of that as there was a better trade a little while before London opened.
Today for most of the London session there was a counter-trend drift, but there were no additional moves of any great significance.
I will wait for midnight GMT before making a final call, but we are currently positioned for a Demand Return trade tomorrow, short on AUDUSD between 0.9312 and 0.9260. Trades can be taken from midnight GMT tonight until close tomorrow. Of course, trading very close to Friday's close can be risky as brokers usually do not guarantee stops that are hit over the weekend.
Today for most of the London session there was a counter-trend drift, but there were no additional moves of any great significance.
I will wait for midnight GMT before making a final call, but we are currently positioned for a Demand Return trade tomorrow, short on AUDUSD between 0.9312 and 0.9260. Trades can be taken from midnight GMT tonight until close tomorrow. Of course, trading very close to Friday's close can be risky as brokers usually do not guarantee stops that are hit over the weekend.
LONDON OPEN - Roundup
Good morning. The story today is simple and good. The news last night has markedly strengthened the USD and weakened the JPY against more or less everything. The biggest mover is USDJPY which is driving the market.
The strongest risk currency against JPY is EUR. I took a quick long a short while ago, there have already been 2 long 4 hour bar engufing set ups this morning. I missed the earlier engulfing bar (first blue shade) but caught the inside bar for some pips up to R2:
If you are not already in, hopefully there will be a pullback with more chances for entry later.
The strongest risk currency against JPY is EUR. I took a quick long a short while ago, there have already been 2 long 4 hour bar engufing set ups this morning. I missed the earlier engulfing bar (first blue shade) but caught the inside bar for some pips up to R2:
If you are not already in, hopefully there will be a pullback with more chances for entry later.
Wednesday, 19 June 2013
LONDON OPEN - Roundup
Good morning. There has been very little movement overnight and so far this morning. Today the market is probably not going to give much in the way of opportunities. Things should become clearer with the FOMC meeting tonight, after which we are probably set for some movement.
I still have my eye on AUD longs especially AUDUSD which if it breaks 0.9525 should be a good bet to move long nicely.
I still have my eye on AUD longs especially AUDUSD which if it breaks 0.9525 should be a good bet to move long nicely.
Tuesday, 18 June 2013
LONDON CLOSE - Roundup
The London session today did not give much clarity. Everything is still mixed up and there were few opportunities today for swing trading.
EURJPY engulfed up on the 4 hour chart and it was possible to make a few pips long as it traveled up to 128.06.
AUDJPY also engulfed up but so far has not really been able to break through the resistance around the GMT daily pivot.
AUDUSD has just engulfed up so it seems that taken together with AUDJPY that AUD is trying to turn long. As we are at significant lows and AUD has lately moved strongly, a long AUD trade could be on the cards.
EURJPY engulfed up on the 4 hour chart and it was possible to make a few pips long as it traveled up to 128.06.
AUDJPY also engulfed up but so far has not really been able to break through the resistance around the GMT daily pivot.
AUDUSD has just engulfed up so it seems that taken together with AUDJPY that AUD is trying to turn long. As we are at significant lows and AUD has lately moved strongly, a long AUD trade could be on the cards.
LONDON OPEN - Roundup
The market is mixed and confused and waiting for news.
The clearest trend has been the continued decline of AUDUSD which printed another engulfing short 4 hour bar very early this morning.
If you were in yesterday's AUDUSD MTFM short trade you could be up about 150 pips by now.
A 4 hour bullish engulfing bar just printed on EURUSD, there was an inside bar on the 15 minute chart with a long break but it failed. There is also a long 4 hour set-up on EURJPY but that would have to break a very strong resistance level of 127.50.
The clearest trend has been the continued decline of AUDUSD which printed another engulfing short 4 hour bar very early this morning.
If you were in yesterday's AUDUSD MTFM short trade you could be up about 150 pips by now.
A 4 hour bullish engulfing bar just printed on EURUSD, there was an inside bar on the 15 minute chart with a long break but it failed. There is also a long 4 hour set-up on EURJPY but that would have to break a very strong resistance level of 127.50.
Monday, 17 June 2013
LONDON CLOSE - Roundup
There were MTFM set-ups on EURUSD and GBPUSD but neither of those would have been great to take, especially EURUSD.
As I highlighted in my last post, the better bet was short AUDUSD, which did indeed break down and reach the daily low, in fact surpassing it so far by another 38 pips:
Zooming in on the 15 minute chart there was a nice entry as an engulfing pin cutting through both the 50 period moving averages broke the 4 hour low on the next bar. So far that would be a risk of 15 pips and a maximum reward of about 85.
It has been a fairly quiet London session and a typical Monday. I took no trades as it I judged it a poor market for trading. Tomorrow could be much more dynamic with some key economic events scheduled.
As I highlighted in my last post, the better bet was short AUDUSD, which did indeed break down and reach the daily low, in fact surpassing it so far by another 38 pips:
Zooming in on the 15 minute chart there was a nice entry as an engulfing pin cutting through both the 50 period moving averages broke the 4 hour low on the next bar. So far that would be a risk of 15 pips and a maximum reward of about 85.
It has been a fairly quiet London session and a typical Monday. I took no trades as it I judged it a poor market for trading. Tomorrow could be much more dynamic with some key economic events scheduled.
MTFM Set Up AUDUSD
The last 4 hours have closed as a bearish engulfing.
I am not very enthusiastic about this set-up either; however, it looks better than EURUSD and GBPUSD as with AUDUSD we are at least having a series of lower highs and lower lows:
If AUDUSD breaks down sharply and suddenly, we might at least get a trip back down to today's low.
I am not very enthusiastic about this set-up either; however, it looks better than EURUSD and GBPUSD as with AUDUSD we are at least having a series of lower highs and lower lows:
If AUDUSD breaks down sharply and suddenly, we might at least get a trip back down to today's low.
MTFM Set Ups
There are 4 hour bullish engulfing bars on EURUSD and GBPUSD.
I am not optimistic about these set ups and if there are any trades on the 15 minute chart I would take them with the smallest position size possible.
Let's see if they break their highs soon.
I am not optimistic about these set ups and if there are any trades on the 15 minute chart I would take them with the smallest position size possible.
Let's see if they break their highs soon.
WEEKLY OPEN
Good morning. So far since Tokyo opened the JPY has been weakening, especially against AUD but also against the USD and the risk currencies. The risk currencies in general are also up somewhat against the USD.
As this is Monday it is appropriate to be cautious as Mondays often show fake moves and chop. The swings in most currency pairs have been slowly leading towards consolidation which makes me cautious.
However if the risk currencies pull back from some of their gains there might be a good trade if they either make new highs or alternatively go on to drop strongly.
As this is Monday it is appropriate to be cautious as Mondays often show fake moves and chop. The swings in most currency pairs have been slowly leading towards consolidation which makes me cautious.
However if the risk currencies pull back from some of their gains there might be a good trade if they either make new highs or alternatively go on to drop strongly.
Friday, 14 June 2013
Daily Update
It has been a quiet day with not much trading opportunity. Both the USD and JPY have been strengthening with the JPY most strong.
The trades I mentioned yesterday went well. The MTFM AUDJPY trade retraced to within a pip of its stop less then turned around again and took off. It is still live now. The trade made yesterday a maximum of 250 pips for a risk of about 28 pips, almost 10 to 1 reward to risk:
The GBPUSD Demand Return trade was successful and did reach the high and beyond, although it was also very close to reaching the stop:
I mentioned the possibility yesterday of a EURUSD Demand Return trade. This did set up twice, once for a loss, once for a win. I did not take this as the price had already travelled about 70 pips since the morning and the set up was just before USD crucial news.
The trades I mentioned yesterday went well. The MTFM AUDJPY trade retraced to within a pip of its stop less then turned around again and took off. It is still live now. The trade made yesterday a maximum of 250 pips for a risk of about 28 pips, almost 10 to 1 reward to risk:
The GBPUSD Demand Return trade was successful and did reach the high and beyond, although it was also very close to reaching the stop:
I mentioned the possibility yesterday of a EURUSD Demand Return trade. This did set up twice, once for a loss, once for a win. I did not take this as the price had already travelled about 70 pips since the morning and the set up was just before USD crucial news.
Thursday, 13 June 2013
MTFM AUDJPY Long trade
I did not take this as I already has a long AUDUSD position that was doing well.
There was a 4 hour engulfing bar at the last hourly close.
There was also a 15 minute engufing bar at the same time, you could have taken the long break of this bar at the high just a few pips above.
It is currently +30 pips for a risk of 24. and was higher a short while ago:
There was a 4 hour engulfing bar at the last hourly close.
There was also a 15 minute engufing bar at the same time, you could have taken the long break of this bar at the high just a few pips above.
It is currently +30 pips for a risk of 24. and was higher a short while ago:
Demand Return GBPUSD Long trade - Part 2
The first trade was stopped out, but there was another opportunity about an hour ago with the break off an inside bar at a lower price than the first trade. It also had just touched the 200 EMA (white line) which probably helped. For a risk of about 9 pips it made +28. It may well not hit the high of today, I exited when it entered the congestion zone at 1.5880:
Demand Return GBPUSD Long trade
A 15 minute inside bar formed at the top of the demand level. Entered long on the long break of the bar:
MTFM Set-Up Short EURUSD
The 4 hour bar has engulfed off the daily high, we can now wait for a 15 minute entry.
LONDON OPEN - Roundup
Apologies for my silence over the past couple of days, I will try to write a recap of the trades of interest that happened during this period later.
The JPY has continued to strengthen and has reached a level against the USD not seen since early April. Meanwhile the USD has continued to weaken against EUR and GBP, but the main story remains USDJPY.
This morning since Frankfurt open USD has been strengthening somewhat, particularly against the risk currencies.
There has been a MTFM trade set up short on GBPUSD a few minutes ago, however I am ignoring this as we are very close to the zone for considering a long Demand Return trade, which tend to have a better win rate than the MTFM trade.
It may be a slow day as there is little news expected, and we saw large moves yesterday.
The JPY has continued to strengthen and has reached a level against the USD not seen since early April. Meanwhile the USD has continued to weaken against EUR and GBP, but the main story remains USDJPY.
This morning since Frankfurt open USD has been strengthening somewhat, particularly against the risk currencies.
There has been a MTFM trade set up short on GBPUSD a few minutes ago, however I am ignoring this as we are very close to the zone for considering a long Demand Return trade, which tend to have a better win rate than the MTFM trade.
It may be a slow day as there is little news expected, and we saw large moves yesterday.
Tuesday, 11 June 2013
PONSHADA PINS - EURUSD Short Trade
We just had a pin bar on the 1 hour chart on EURUSD that is larger than any of the 5 previous bars and that cuts through a pivot point (R1 at 1.3288 on the GMT chart). It also cuts through Friday's daily high and is very close to a round number. The open and close are both in the bottom third of the bar. We have a Ponshada Pins trade:
However the trend still has some strength so this does not seem to be like a top-grade set-up. I started the trade small and might add to it later.
However the trend still has some strength so this does not seem to be like a top-grade set-up. I started the trade small and might add to it later.
LONDON OPEN - Roundup
The Tokyo session has seen a strengthening of the safe haven currencies JPY and USD with JPY stronger.
However weakness is AUD has been the leading factor in the forex market overnight, driven by poor Australian economic data in conjunction with its long-term weakening trend.
These tendencies have continued since London opened almost an hour ago and so might continue all day. However there is a Bank of Japan press conference going on right now that could easily move the market around.
However weakness is AUD has been the leading factor in the forex market overnight, driven by poor Australian economic data in conjunction with its long-term weakening trend.
These tendencies have continued since London opened almost an hour ago and so might continue all day. However there is a Bank of Japan press conference going on right now that could easily move the market around.
Monday, 10 June 2013
WEEKLY OPEN - Roundup
As I mentioned at the close last Friday, the big question is whether the JPY will begin weakening again after having formed pin bars on the daily charts against a number of currencies especially the USD and EUR.
So far today, Friday's reversal has continued, there was a quick MTFM trade on EURJPY long at 9am London time this morning when H4, H1 and M15 engulfing bars all printed at the same time for +50 pips of profit until it hit last week's opening level.
Since NY opened about 45 minutes ago, the JPY has begun strengthening again, but it is too soon for any trade set-ups from this.
So far today, Friday's reversal has continued, there was a quick MTFM trade on EURJPY long at 9am London time this morning when H4, H1 and M15 engulfing bars all printed at the same time for +50 pips of profit until it hit last week's opening level.
Since NY opened about 45 minutes ago, the JPY has begun strengthening again, but it is too soon for any trade set-ups from this.
Friday, 7 June 2013
LONDON CLOSE - Roundup
An interesting day that gave some opportunities.
Overnight and before the NFP, JPY and to a much lesser extent USD continued to strengthen.
There were short MTFM trades on both GBPJPY and EURJPY, the GBPJPY being better. However these only gave about 1:1 reward to risk before anticipation of the NFP caused volatile fluctuation and hitting of stops.
After the NFP there was a long MTFM trade on EURJPY that is up about 1.2:1 reward to risk and still open right now.
In the bigger picture on the daily charts, all the JPY pairs seem poised to give pin bars against JPY, signalling that perhaps the sharp strengthening of the JPY over recent weeks is over, at least for a significant retracement, and possibly for a change in trend. Monday could give further clues.
Recent moves in JPY have been wild and massive, though technically orderly, and show every sign of continuing to give good trading opportunities.
The AUDUSD short Demand Return trade I highlighted yesterday did work out, however the first signal was very weak, engulfing less than a pip, and given very late right at NY close so I passed on that and slept during Tokyo session. However it gave excellent reward to risk of about 18 to 1!
A good weekend away from the screens to you all.
Overnight and before the NFP, JPY and to a much lesser extent USD continued to strengthen.
There were short MTFM trades on both GBPJPY and EURJPY, the GBPJPY being better. However these only gave about 1:1 reward to risk before anticipation of the NFP caused volatile fluctuation and hitting of stops.
After the NFP there was a long MTFM trade on EURJPY that is up about 1.2:1 reward to risk and still open right now.
In the bigger picture on the daily charts, all the JPY pairs seem poised to give pin bars against JPY, signalling that perhaps the sharp strengthening of the JPY over recent weeks is over, at least for a significant retracement, and possibly for a change in trend. Monday could give further clues.
Recent moves in JPY have been wild and massive, though technically orderly, and show every sign of continuing to give good trading opportunities.
The AUDUSD short Demand Return trade I highlighted yesterday did work out, however the first signal was very weak, engulfing less than a pip, and given very late right at NY close so I passed on that and slept during Tokyo session. However it gave excellent reward to risk of about 18 to 1!
A good weekend away from the screens to you all.
Thursday, 6 June 2013
LONDON CLOSE - Roundup
A fairly quiet day until the news in the afternoon which gave further strength to the EUR.
The near London close, a huge explosion driven by a massive strengthening of JPY against USD, which led to huge bullish rises in EURUSD and GBPUSD. The day's ranges in both of these pairs were the largest since early January in EURUSD and for even longer than that in GBPUSD.
If you had been holding longs from previous trades I highlighted over the past couple of weeks in EURUSD and GBPUSD you will very well positioned in profit now.
In AUDUSD the price has just returned to the Demand Zone (between yesterday's high and Wednesday's low) for a Demand Return trade (between 0.9660 and 0.9610), however there has not yet been a good entry point. Hopefully price will move back closer to the zone this evening and give the chance of a low-risk entry.
The demand zone is between the 2 upper blue horizontal lines:
The near London close, a huge explosion driven by a massive strengthening of JPY against USD, which led to huge bullish rises in EURUSD and GBPUSD. The day's ranges in both of these pairs were the largest since early January in EURUSD and for even longer than that in GBPUSD.
If you had been holding longs from previous trades I highlighted over the past couple of weeks in EURUSD and GBPUSD you will very well positioned in profit now.
In AUDUSD the price has just returned to the Demand Zone (between yesterday's high and Wednesday's low) for a Demand Return trade (between 0.9660 and 0.9610), however there has not yet been a good entry point. Hopefully price will move back closer to the zone this evening and give the chance of a low-risk entry.
The demand zone is between the 2 upper blue horizontal lines:
LONDON OPEN - Roundup
Good morning. AUD continued its move down during the Tokyo session but has been retracing the last couple of hours. Movements right now are a bit mixed and mainly counter trend. EUR and GBP remain bullish but show signs of running out of momentum.
Yesterday's Ponshada Pins trade was stopped out for a loss. The GBPUSD Trend Engulfs trade which I was stopped out of at break even however is up over a hundred pips for anyone still in that.
Yesterday's Ponshada Pins trade was stopped out for a loss. The GBPUSD Trend Engulfs trade which I was stopped out of at break even however is up over a hundred pips for anyone still in that.
Wednesday, 5 June 2013
LONDON CLOSE - Roundup
Today saw a general strengthening of the JPY but the prime mover was weakness in AUD.
The big down move in AUDJPY began during the Tokyo session with a 4H engulfing bar:
There were several opportunities to enter a MTFM trade from the 15 minute chart during both the London and Tokyo session. 4 winners and 3 losers giving a total maximum net gain to date of +520 pips!
The big down move in AUDJPY began during the Tokyo session with a 4H engulfing bar:
There were several opportunities to enter a MTFM trade from the 15 minute chart during both the London and Tokyo session. 4 winners and 3 losers giving a total maximum net gain to date of +520 pips!
There were also entries on other pairs EURUSD which was choppy (3 losers), GBPUSD (2 losers, 1 winner), and AUDUSD (1 winner).
There was a good-looking Trend Engulfs entry on GBPUSD long, which is currently in profit. I took this but exited at break even after the pin bar:
Finally there was a Ponshada Pin entry short on EURUSD which I did take. These have a high win rate although this was not one of the best set-ups due to the price action below the entry bar. It is still open and working at a loss right now, though hopefully it is beginning to turn around:
All in all a busy day.
LONDON OPEN - Roundup
Good morning. Yesterday was a very quiet day with little action or movement.
Overnight the JPY has strengthened most notably against AUD. USD has also strengthened against most other currencies but the big story as so often these days is USDJPY.
Yesterday was an inside day on many pairs so trading could be quite unpredictable and choppy today. It may well be that JPY has already made its move so be careful.
Overnight the JPY has strengthened most notably against AUD. USD has also strengthened against most other currencies but the big story as so often these days is USDJPY.
Yesterday was an inside day on many pairs so trading could be quite unpredictable and choppy today. It may well be that JPY has already made its move so be careful.
Tuesday, 4 June 2013
LONDON OPEN - Roundup
Overnight the AUD and JPY have weakened. EUR and GBP are relatively strong. Time to watch and wait and see how things develop over the session.
Monday, 3 June 2013
LONDON CLOSE - Roundup
A mixed session which began with USD bottoming out against JPY and the risk currencies before tracing out a textbook reversal which gained momentum with the NY open. However the economic news from the USA about 1.5 hours ago turned everything around sharply and strongly and as I write USD is significantly down especially against JPY. The big move of the day is in USDJPY.
There were two MTFM trades today, I took both of them. Firstly long GBPJPY which was a fast loser. The second which looked much more promising was EURUSD short at about 1.2990 after a reversal from the day's high. It got to about 1.2955 before reversing sharply with the news.
The good news is that if you are still in last week's long trades in EURUSD and GBPUSD (believe it or not, the only valid trades from my systems last week which I chose not to take), as I write you are up some significant pips that far outweigh the other losses:
GBPUSD MTFM +220 pips
GBPUSD Demand Return +180 pips
EURUSD MTFM + 190 pips
EURUSD Demand Return +120 pips
A mixed session which began with USD bottoming out against JPY and the risk currencies before tracing out a textbook reversal which gained momentum with the NY open. However the economic news from the USA about 1.5 hours ago turned everything around sharply and strongly and as I write USD is significantly down especially against JPY. The big move of the day is in USDJPY.
There were two MTFM trades today, I took both of them. Firstly long GBPJPY which was a fast loser. The second which looked much more promising was EURUSD short at about 1.2990 after a reversal from the day's high. It got to about 1.2955 before reversing sharply with the news.
The good news is that if you are still in last week's long trades in EURUSD and GBPUSD (believe it or not, the only valid trades from my systems last week which I chose not to take), as I write you are up some significant pips that far outweigh the other losses:
GBPUSD MTFM +220 pips
GBPUSD Demand Return +180 pips
EURUSD MTFM + 190 pips
EURUSD Demand Return +120 pips
LONDON OPEN - Roundup
The USD has weakened overnight and in early morning trading, especially against the EUR and GBP.
If you took the late trades in either EURUSD or GBPUSD long that I highlighted on Friday (but advised to exit before the weekend close), that would be great, with GBPUSD you already hit the first profit target (Thursday's high).
The MTFM trades from earlier in the week can also still be open and in some nice profit, if you took them.
I don't see any other opportunities so far today.
If you took the late trades in either EURUSD or GBPUSD long that I highlighted on Friday (but advised to exit before the weekend close), that would be great, with GBPUSD you already hit the first profit target (Thursday's high).
The MTFM trades from earlier in the week can also still be open and in some nice profit, if you took them.
I don't see any other opportunities so far today.
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